302 Duffy Lane · Strategic Pricing Review
Lakeway Highlands · Lake Travis ISD · 78738 · Foreman Property Group · eXp Realty Luxury
Prepared for the Sellers · May 4, 2026
The Goal We're Solving For
August 1, 2026
Close on or before this date. That is 89 days from today.
Working Backward
Under contract by July 1 — assuming a 30-day close window with a 7- to 10-day option period and a standard 21-day financing horizon.

Every pricing decision in this deck is measured against that single deadline.
Where We've Been
1
January 2026
Listed at $1,250,000. Strong launch into the market.
2
Shortly After Launch
A full-price offer was secured — the home appraised, inspected, and presented well enough for a qualified buyer to commit.
3
Final Day of Financing Period
Buyer's financing fell through — outside the seller's control and outside ours.
4
Today · May 2026
The market resets the price. A financing failure resets the contract. We move forward with precision.

What that contract confirmed: the home appraised, inspected, and presented well enough for a qualified buyer to commit at full price four months ago. What it did not establish: today's market-clearing price.
What 302 Duffy Already Delivers
This is the comp story that gets lost when people compare on size and year built alone.
Private Pool
A premium feature the $1M+ buyer pool actively shops for in 78738.
Covered Outdoor Living
Fireplace and integrated TV — a true outdoor room, not just a patio.
Highly Private Backyard
Uncommon on this street and in this phase of Lakeway Highlands.
Greenbelt & Hill Country Exposure
Phase 1 · Section 1 — views and setting that command a premium.

These are not commodity features. They are the features the $1M-plus 78738 buyer pool actively shops for.
What We've Improved Since Launch
Comprehensive Refresh — Top Quartile Presentation
Interior repaint — full home
Exterior repaint — full home
New carpet throughout
New lighting fixtures across every room
LED downlights installed throughout

Net effect: 302 Duffy now sits in the top quartile of presentation among the active competition. We have seen 308 Duffy in person — we are presenting at a higher tier.
What Buyers Have Told Us
Two consistent themes in showing feedback:
Kitchen
Cabinetry and countertops read as one cycle behind the price band buyers are shopping above $1.1M.
Floor Plan
The upstairs second primary suite reads as redundant square footage to most buyers.
The Right Response
Renovating those points requires $50K–$80K and 60+ days. We do not have either to spare.

The right response is precise pricing — not construction.
The 78738 Market Today
Active Competition
30+ competing homes in Lake Travis ISD between $900,000 and $1,300,000 within three miles.

Median reduction from original list to closed price in this band: 8% to 17%. Time-to-contract on successful closings: 80 to 155 days.
What Is Selling
Homes priced where the comp set actually clears.
What Is Sitting
Homes priced where the seller wishes the market still was.
Same Street, Different Product
308 Duffy Lane — Active
$995,000 · 3,987 sf · 5BR/4BA · Built 2013
Listed April 25, 2026.
Critically missing:
  • No pool
  • No covered outdoor living
  • No fireplace
  • Presentation meaningfully below 302 Duffy
What 308 Still Does
It sets the search anchor. Buyers searching this street will see both. Our price needs to make sense relative to it — but we are not selling the same product.

Pool, outdoor living, presentation, and privacy are why we sit above it. We are not competing with 308 Duffy — we are differentiated from it.
The True Comp Set · Homes With Pools
The 78738 / Lake Travis ISD pool comp set, 3,500 to 4,300 square feet — this is what buyers shopping pools and outdoor living are working from.

This is the comp set buyers shopping pools and outdoor living are working from — not the no-pool actives down the street.
No-Pool Neighborhood Context
For reference — these are useful market context, but they are not what 302 Duffy is selling against.
The Takeaway
Sitting actives without pools are clustering $1,025K to $1,099K.

Our pool, covered outdoor area, and private yard sit clearly above this band. 302 Duffy is not competing in this tier — it commands a premium above it.
The Pool Premium · What It Is Worth
$995K
Band Floor
Bella Colinas — sitting at 118 days. Bottom of the pool comp set.
$1.05M
Active Median
The midpoint of currently active pool homes in the 78738 comp set.
$1.075M
Under-Contract Median
Where buyers are actually committing — the true market-clearing zone.
$1.15M
Active Ceiling
107 Squires Dr — solar infinity pool, Old Lakeway. Top of the band.

The 78738 market is currently paying $50,000 to $155,000 over the no-pool comp set for homes with private pools, covered outdoor living, and genuine yard privacy. 302 Duffy delivers all three.
The Strategy · Top 25% Presentation, Bottom 25% of Pricing Band
The luxury pricing principle that breaks logjams: when a property is presented in the top quartile of its competition and priced in the bottom quartile of its true comp band, you create an asymmetry buyers cannot ignore.
Top 25% Presentation
  • Refreshed paint inside and out
  • New carpet and new lighting
  • LED downlights throughout
  • Private pool
  • Covered outdoor living with fireplace and TV
  • Private yard with greenbelt exposure
Bottom 25% of the Pool Comp Band
Priced just above the active floor and well under the under-contract median.

This is the wedge that produces a contract before July 1. You generate showings, urgency, and the conditions for a clean, financed offer — quickly.
The Pricing Recommendation
$1,074,900
Reduce list price to $1,074,900 — the strategic sweet spot for a fast, financed contract.
1
25th Percentile of Pool Band
The strategic sweet spot for fast contract — bottom of the pool/outdoor-living comp band.
2
Captures the Pool Premium
$25K above the active pool floor (Osceola and Via Besso at $1,050K) and $25K below the under-contract median ($1,100K at 209 Rocky Coast).
3
Above the No-Pool Band
Sits clearly above the no-pool neighborhood band ($1,025K–$1,099K) — preserving the pool/outdoor differentiator.
4
Improves Buyer Financing
Opens 302 Duffy to a wider qualified buyer pool than the current $1.19M ask.
5
Triggers MLS Re-Search Alerts
Refreshes consumer-facing visibility on Realtor.com, Zillow, Redfin, and Compass.
Why This Closes by August 1
The math works at this price. It does not work above it. Average DOM in the new band at current pace: 21 to 40 days for top-presentation pool homes. That delivers two weeks of cushion before the August 1 deadline — flexibility on financing contingencies and inspection negotiations.
The Cost of Waiting
Monthly Staleness Cost
Each 30 days at the wrong price typically costs 1.5% to 2.5% of list value through staleness signals, accumulated DOM, and forced reductions.
$18K
Low End
Per month at the wrong price
$30K
High End
Per month at the wrong price
The Market Is Moving Away From Us
Three new $975K to $995K listings have entered the comp set since April 25.
The market is not accelerating into us. It is accelerating away from us.

Pricing power in the next 60 days belongs to the sellers who reduce first. Not last.
The Action Plan
Reduce List Price to $1,074,900
Effective Tuesday, May 5 — immediately triggers MLS re-search alerts and refreshes portal visibility.
Re-Shoot Hero Photography
Refresh exterior, pool, and covered outdoor living photography — interior light and exterior twilight for the re-launch.
Broker Open · Week of May 12
Coordinate a broker open with Lakeway-based agents to generate immediate professional awareness.
Pre-Marketing Email · Evening of May 6
FPG sphere and Lake Travis luxury network — first-mover advantage before the broader market sees the reduction.
Re-Evaluate at 21 Days
If no contract by May 27, consider strategic concessions — rate buy-down or closing-cost credit — before any further price reduction.
The home is ready. The product is in the top quartile. The price needs to meet the qualified buyer where the buyer is right now.
Daniel Foreman | Foreman Property Group | eXp Realty Luxury
512.554.8293 · daniel@foremanpropertygroup.com